MVRV Z-Score: What It Is and How Crypto Investors Use It to Spot Market Turns

When traders ask if Bitcoin is overpriced or due for a rebound, they often turn to the MVRV Z-Score, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value to gauge whether it’s overvalued or undervalued. Also known as Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score, it’s one of the most reliable on-chain indicators for spotting major market turning points. Unlike price charts that show what happened, MVRV Z-Score tells you why it might be happening — by measuring how much investors are actually paying versus what they originally paid.

This metric is built using two key numbers: Market Value, the total value of all Bitcoin in circulation at current prices, and Realized Value, the sum of the USD value of all Bitcoin when they were last moved. If the market value is way higher than realized value, the MVRV Z-Score spikes — meaning most holders are sitting on big profits, and a pullback could be coming. When the score drops below zero, it often means the average holder is underwater, which has historically signaled a good buying opportunity.

Back in 2021, the MVRV Z-Score hit over 7 — a level seen only twice before, right before major crashes. In late 2022, it plunged below -1, right as Bitcoin hit its low of $15,500. These aren’t coincidences. Analysts at firms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant use this metric daily to filter out noise and focus on real investor behavior. It doesn’t predict exact tops or bottoms, but it gives a clear signal when the crowd is getting greedy or fearful — and that’s more valuable than most technical indicators.

What you’ll find in the posts below are real-world examples of how MVRV Z-Score has played out across market cycles, how it connects to other on-chain metrics like NVT Ratio and Puell Multiple, and how traders use it alongside regulatory shifts, exchange flows, and tokenomics to make smarter calls. You won’t find fluff here — just clear data, real patterns, and what actually happened when this metric flashed red or green.